There’s ‘no end in sight’ to buyout madness

Hey there,

In today’s newsletter, I have another angle on the coaching buyout bonanza. (Matt Brown of Extra Points had a great piece on Monday about how money isn't real. Check it out!) We also discuss the women’s sports numbers from Opendorse. Read up on the latest news from around the NIL world.

In other news, we’re still running a promotion for 20% off all-access subscriptions. Get your discount here so you can keep up with everything we have to offer! And make sure to follow us on Twitter, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook. We’d also love to hear feedback on anything and everything about our newsletter. Hit reply or send us an email at [email protected].

— Kyle

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KICKOFF

Money keeps pouring into women’s sports

We all know women’s sports are in the midst of a golden age. 

An analysis released on Monday by Opendorse paints an even rosier picture for female athletes’ earning power. 

According to the NIL marketplace, total NIL spending on women’s sports is projected to reach $663.3 million by 2027–28, more than double the amount from six years prior ($305.9 million). In Division I, 8 to 12 percent of revenue-sharing payments are expected to go to women’s sports.  

Female athletes represent nearly one-third of all NIL deal submissions. 

From 2022 to 2024, the years immediately following the introduction of NIL, women’s sports grew 4.5 times faster than men’s sports.

These figures are a surprise to no one. Or at least they shouldn’t be. TV numbers, attendance and institutional support tell a story about real and potential growth and an audience that is all-in on women’s sports.

More news and links:

• Oklahoma men’s basketball coach Porter Moser said NIL and the transfer portal have made this season’s team his deepest with the Sooners.

• It was more than NIL dollars that led AJ Dybantsa to BYU.

• 247Sports ranks the power conference openings based on NIL spending.

• North Carolina State has experienced a rise in NIL funding since hiring Will Wade.

VIDEO OF THE WEEK

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DOWN TO BUSINESS

There’s ‘no end in sight’ to buyout madness

Sunday is becoming more synonymous with college football coach firings than church or the NFL. 

This week, Auburn’s Hugh Freeze got the axe — and a $15.8 million golden parachute. He’s the 11th coach fired this season, increasing this year’s record amount of buyout money to a staggering $182 million. 

“It’s a number that sounds really big until you look at how much more money has flowed into programs relative to rev share,” an FBS athletic director said. 

And Freeze will not be the last coach who’s given a pink slip in what will go down as the wildest coaching carousel in the sport’s history. We’ve already seen three of the five biggest buyouts ever. And don’t forget: The rest of those staffs will be paid, too — an eight-figure sum. 

“Buyout season is part of the calendar now,” one power conference administrator said. “It’s no different than the portal opening.” 

It’s part of the season why Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry essentially fired LSU athletic director Scott Woodward last week during a press conference about food stamps. Woodward has been directly or partially responsible for the two largest coaching buyouts in college football history — $76.8 million for Jimbo Fisher and $53.8 million for Kelly. Five of the top 10 are SEC coaches. 

IT JUST MEANS MORE. As in, more money. 

Winning is so intoxicating that ADs succumb to the pressure tactics that coaches and agents use during negotiations.

“My role is about the fiscal effect of firing a coach under a terrible contract,” Landry said. (This was days after a meeting of LSU brass at the governor’s mansion to discuss Kelly’s imminent firing.) 

Pigskin and politics have coexisted for more than a century. Despite the outlandish and cartoonish nature of Landry’s rant, the message wasn’t wrong. Ballooning buyouts have surpassed the threshold of absurdity. 

“ADs wanting to win the presser always cave,” a former long-time athletic director, who’s now retired, said. 

Keep in mind, the richest athletic departments in the country are constantly complaining about not having enough money and searching for new revenue streams. The Big Ten has held deep discussions about private capital. North Carolina’s general manager traveled to Saudi Arabia to pitch the Kingdom’s Private Investment Fund. 

So where is all this buyout money going to come from? Deep-pocketed boosters will donate a bulk of the funding, but athletic departments will foot part of the bill. College football spending has gone up dramatically over the past decade, with another surge in the NIL and revenue-sharing era. But schools always find a way to get it done. 

The insatiable quest for relevance and winning is what keeps the cycle spinning. Not even a global pandemic and legitimate concerns about financial constraints could stop athletic departments’ stranglehold on football spending, as Auburn paid Gus Malzahn $21.4 million — the largest-ever buyout at the time. Winning is the only thing that matters, fiscal sanity be damned. 

“There’s no appetite for patience,” an FBS athletic director said. 

Boosters have no limit until a championship is won, and even then, cash still pours in. Coaches and schools can’t cope with complacency, so spending rises just as the win total does. Ask Ohio State. College football is the only sport (and business) where losing money isn’t met with outrage from stakeholders, as long as their school wins. 

Emotions and vibes control most decisions, a dangerous situation akin to the mental state of a high school relationship. At many of the sport’s biggest brands, the most powerful people aren’t the AD, the president or the board. It can be a single booster or a group. At every turn, ADs’ hands are tied. 

The most sensible thing would be to increase resources, give the coach an incentive-laden contract, then pay him big bucks when he gets to the playoff. That’s ROI. 

Another smart, economical plan would be shorter contracts. Previously, coaches fretted about the perceptions of not having four or five years on a deal because it could hurt recruiting. With the transfer portal, the length of coaching contracts is irrelevant. 

When NIL Wire discussed the topic with one FBS coach, he said, “I don’t have any knowledge of this … that’s a question for athletic directors.” LOL.

There are murmurs in the industry about this year’s coaching cycle marking a shift in how schools handle coaching contracts. But that seems as likely as UMass becoming a powerhouse. A federal bill was introduced to cap contracts. How did the industry respond? Nebraska AD Troy Dannen extended Matt Rhule, who is 9-15 in the Big Ten and 0-8 against ranked opponents while coaching the Huskers. That’s fiscal responsibility! 

Indiana signed Curt Cignetti to an eight-year extension that pays him more than $11 million per year. The entire contract is guaranteed if Cignetti is fired for cause, though it’s hard to quibble with Hoosier AD Scott Dolson’s actions. Cignetti has won in Division II, FCS and turned Indiana(!) into the nation’s “it” program. 

SMU extended Rhett Lashlee, making the 42-year-old one of the 10 highest-paid coaches in the country.

Often overlooked are the buyouts for coaches to leave their current jobs, figures that are just as out of whack. While it costs schools tens of millions to fire someone who’s bad at their job, coaches can leave for $10 million to $15 million, and sometimes even less.  

We got here because of reasons already mentioned: the desire to win, savvy agents and panicked athletic directors. It started with Charlie Weis’s foolish contract and reached the apex when Fisher and Mel Tucker each received 10-year deals. 

For the pattern to end, someone must be the first to say no. Good luck.

“There’s no end in sight to this,” another sitting AD said. “I’m judged by the hire, not off the budget. The budget doesn’t matter as long as my hire wins. The budget doesn’t matter when you're successful. ADs have the pressure to hire a winning coach. That’s what my career is based on.”

ATHLETE SPOTLIGHT

Can Dybantsa carry BYU to the Final Four?

He’s only played one career game, but AJ Dybantsa is already one of the most-hyped NBA prospects for next year’s draft. The Massachusetts native raised eyebrows when he committed to … BYU. But the Cougars are flush with cash, and they have put it to good use. Dybantsa dazzled in exhibition games against Nebraska and North Carolina, finishing with 48 points, 15 rebounds, four assists, six steals and just five turnovers in more than 65 minutes.

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