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How NIL altered the NFL draft pipeline
Money in college football has changed the makeup of the draft
Kyle Rowland
March 03, 2026
Good morning!
Thanks for reading NIL Wire today. I’ll let you know why NIL is helping college teams and NFL franchises. Plus, some news about the Summit League, AI in athletic departments and state taxes. Now, that is a diverse offering of college sports news!
Enjoy.
— Kyle
KICKOFF
Is the Summit League at a crossroads?
Where there’s smoke, there’s fire. So should the Summit League be worried about impending doom?
The conference has teetered throughout the years. Perhaps this is nothing it can’t handle. The league sponsors 10 women’s championships and nine on the men’s side, but notably not football – a structural reality that has always shaped its ceiling. Full-time members are North Dakota State, South Dakota State, North Dakota, South Dakota, Denver, UMKC, Omaha, Oral Roberts and St. Thomas.
After this season, North Dakota State football is leaving for the Mountain West and Denver is going to the West Coast Conference.
Mike McFeely – one of the most plugged-in college sports reporters when it comes to the Dakotas – is bringing the league’s strife to the masses. In a recent column, McFeely spotlighted the internal cohesion that’s fraying. The Summit League’s power center has long resided in the Dakotas. Competitive dominance has translated into political capital. The four Dakota schools have been bound together. A basketball scheduling alliance with the Big Sky reinforced that perception.
In a recent interview, Omaha basketball play-by-play announcer Gary Sharp said he’s “worried about the Summit League.” He noted that Lindenwood and Western Illinois declined overtures to join the Summit League. Western Illinois left the Summit in 2023. Sharp’s concerns come from the Dakota schools’ dominance and clout, and UMKC, Omaha, Oral Roberts (Tulsa) and St. Thomas (Twin Cities), which all sit in major metropolitan areas, having institutional ambition.
This is a 43-year-old league, born as the Mid-Continent Conference, that has survived realignment waves before. But survival in this era requires vision and alignment, each of which seem to be missing right now.
The structural pressures are undeniable – exits, potential exits, universities declining invites, rifts between conference factions. This is a situation to keep watching.
Toledo athletics bets on innovation
Remember when artificial intelligence felt like something out of a futuristic Bruce Willis movie? That future arrived quickly. AI is present in nearly everything we do, shaping how we work, communicate and live.
The University of Toledo is embracing the present and the future. AD Bryan Blair recently required his entire staff to undergo AI training, becoming one of the first athletic departments in the country to go all-in on AI. The goal is straightforward but ambitious: use data more intelligently, make better decisions and operate more efficiently.
“We want to be first and the best in nearly everything that we do,” Blair said. “I think there’s an opportunity for us to lean forward, lead the way and be the best in the country.”
That mindset is already taking shape inside Toledo’s athletic programs. Women’s volleyball coach Brian Wright – who led the program to its first-ever MAC championship and NCAA tournament appearance – has made AI part of his daily routine.
Wright uses the technology in practice to break down every angle of a touch, analyze opponent tendencies and refine player development. What once required hours of manual film study can now be done in a fraction of the time and be more thorough. For a coach coming off a historic season, it would be easy to stick to the routine. Instead, Wright is pushing forward.
“AI is an excellent way to try to figure out some new things,” he said. “I love that creativity is a part of everything we do.”
Toledo has even discussed expanding AI into sports medicine, exploring whether predictive analytics could help prevent injuries before they happen. For a program operating without the financial muscle of college sports’ heavyweights, finding marginal gains is smart and necessary.
Blair wants innovation to become one of the hallmarks of Toledo athletics. With fewer resources, the department is looking for ways to punch above its weight, uncover competitive advantages and close gaps through smarter processes rather than bigger budgets. AI isn’t replacing people, it’s sharpening their ideas and becoming part of the blueprint for success.
SEC arms race expands as Mississippi targets NIL taxes
A potential recruiting advantage may be on the horizon for universities in Mississippi. And they have lawmakers in the state capitol to thank.
On Monday, the Mississippi House of Representatives passed a bill that would exempt NIL earnings from state income tax. If it becomes law, the measure could provide a tangible edge for Ole Miss, Mississippi State and Southern Miss in the increasingly competitive marketplace of college athletics. Currently, the state income tax in Mississippi is a flat 4%, and state lawmakers have signaled they’re like to eventually remove it completely.
As NIL compensation becomes the first step in roster construction, taxes matter. In the SEC footprint, three states – Florida, Texas and Tennessee – don’t have state income tax. That structural advantage has not gone unnoticed by lawmakers elsewhere in the region.
Mississippi would not be alone in adjusting policy to keep pace. In 2025, Arkansas passed legislation exempting NIL income from state taxes, a move widely interpreted as a recruiting counterpunch in the SEC arms race.
“NIL is taking the country by storm,” Mississippi state representative Trey Lamar said. “Other states are doing it, and I believe it’s time that Mississippi starts doing this as well.”
State legislatures are no longer bystanders in college athletics. They are active participants, searching for policy levers that might enhance the competitiveness of their in-state universities. Even marginal financial advantages can influence decisions. But the proposal did not move forward without resistance.
Lamar raised concerns about young athletes suddenly managing significant sums of money and potentially facing steep tax penalties due to inexperience. Supporters framed the bill as both a competitive and protective measure. Critics, however, questioned the precedent.
Dan Eubanks, a Republican, challenged the notion of carving out a tax exemption for a specific class of earners.
“Why would they not be taxed like any other employee?” Eubanks asked. “Is the only incentive for us doing this because other states are doing it? I just don’t know why they’re being treated different than anyone else in the world.”
The debate underscores a tension that is becoming more common nationwide – where does public policy end and competitive athletics begin? As NIL reshapes the economics of college sports, lawmakers are weighing fairness, fiscal policy and institutional ambition all at once.
If the bill becomes law, Mississippi’s universities would gain a clear recruiting talking point. In a conference defined by razor-thin margins and relentless competition, that’s enough incentive for legislators to act.
More news and links:
Jay Bilas went on with the Mad Dog and talked about his dissatisfaction with how college basketball coaches are handling press conferences.
Here’s another AI story for you: NFL scouts fear that their jobs could be on the chopping block.
Our friend Matt Brown at Extra Points has the details on MLB The Show 26’s inclusion of college programs.
Nick Coppola of the Las Cruces Sun News has a great breakdown on the successful start to AD Joe Fields’ tenure.
Louisville’s president, AD and board chair called for structural reform of college sports, encouraging Congress to amend the Sports Broadcasting Act of 1961 and implement a salary cap.
Extra Points’ Matt Brown has his own thoughts on the SEC-Big Ten white paper and the Sports Broadcasting Act of 1961.
The “Fresh” Seafood Myth You’ve Probably Fallen For
A lot of people think frozen seafood is the backup plan — something you buy when you can’t get it fresh. But here’s the truth: when it comes to quality, frozen can actually be fresher than what’s behind the grocery store counter.
Most “fresh” fish has already been frozen for transport, and is then thawed for display (sometimes even thawed and refrozen many times!). By the time you see it on ice at the seafood counter, it may have been sitting there for days. Not exactly what you pictured when you thought “fresh,” right?
For fish that’s truly fresh, “frozen” should be your go-to choice. Wild Alaskan Company freezes wild-caught seafood from Alaska just hours after harvest, locking in peak flavor, texture, and nutrients — perfectly preserved until you’re ready to cook.
It’s not a shortcut. It’s the smart way to enjoy top-quality seafood at its best.
DOWN TO BUSINESS
NIL is reshaping NFL draft boards
Want to see the ripple effects of NIL? Look at an NFL draft board.
When Kansas City Chiefs general manager Brett Veach told reporters at the NFL combine that he removed 25 names from the Chiefs’ board because the players remained in school, it was a window into a new reality. A good one if you’re a college football fan.
Only 63 underclassmen declared early in 2026. That’s less than half as many as 2021, a stark contrast to the pre-NIL norm. And it’s no longer an outlier – it’s a five-year trend.
2021 NFL Draft: 128 underclassmen declared early
2022 NFL Draft: 73 underclassmen declared early
2023 NFL Draft: 82 underclassmen declared early
2024 NFL Draft: 58 underclassmen declared early
2025 NFL Draft: 70 underclassmen declared early
2026 NFL Draft: 63 underclassmen declared early
For decades, the decision to leave early was largely financial. If a player projected as a mid-round pick, the risk-reward calculation leaned toward declaring. The rookie wage scale meant even Day 2 money was guaranteed and life-changing.
But the calculus is changing because NIL compensation and college life can be more lucrative than being a third-round draft pick. If a player’s evaluation grade is in the fourth round or lower, staying in school becomes a no-brainer. Add another year of development, more tape and a higher grade the next year, and the incentive to stay in school becomes clear.
“You see it when we go through these prospects, and we’re looking at the tags, and you see their birth dates, and then you look at your roster, and a lot of the guys are just as young as these guys,” Veach said.
There might be initial frustrations from scouting departments. But this is a net-win for the NFL because prospects are older, mid-round picks are more polished and development timelines shift. Where teams once used Day 2 picks on a 20-year-old with potential, they’re increasingly selecting 22-year-olds with three and four years of starting experience.
Roster continuity has been the biggest benefit of NIL. Elite programs previously dealt with losing juniors who were fringe Day 2 picks. It’s why older rosters are discussed so frequently now. Fan engagement is another element. The transfer portal has wreaked havoc on getting to know players, but when they stay in school longer, fans get to know them better.
“I don’t think that’s going to change anytime soon,” Veach said.
The level of stability can also impact front offices in their draft preparation for the better. More polished players equal fewer busts. Unless there’s a wholesale change in college compensation structures, NIL has permanently altered the incentive structure. The league must now evaluate older prospects and reconsider how aggressively to chase “upside” versus “production.”
In many ways, this is a healthier ecosystem. Players are less financially pressured to leave early, allowing for informed decisions instead of desperate ones. NIL hasn’t broken the draft – it’s recalibrated it.
And for college football, where retaining high-level talent once felt impossible, that may be one of the most significant transformations of all.