It's time to embrace football-only conference affiliation

Good morning, and welcome to Tuesday!

Thanks for reading NIL Wire today. I have a couple of nuggets on how NIL can actually make life harder on coaches at traditional powers, Urban Meyer making some valid points and prediction markets’ rapid college basketball growth. I also lay out why I think the future for college football should be football-only conferences.

Enjoy!

— Kyle

KICKOFF

At blue bloods, NIL has increased the pressure

The head coach at Kentucky will always face scrutiny. Before the NIL era, the pressure was tied to recruiting rankings. If you brought in the No. 1 class and underachieved, criticism followed. John Calipari experienced that reality multiple times.

But the stakes are different now. When a roster carries a $20 million NIL price tag, expectations shift. Recruiting stars are one thing. Spending tens of millions and falling short is another.

Mark Pope felt that pressure publicly over the weekend during Kentucky’s game against Florida when Dick Vitale openly questioned the Wildcats’ roster construction.

“I’ve done several Kentucky games,” Vitale said. “Win or lose, $22 million this team, reports are, in terms of the NIL for their players. I think at $22 million, they could have put together a better roster than they did. I really do.”

Kentucky closed the regular season with just 19 wins and will open the SEC tournament on Wednesday for the first time in program history. Through two seasons in Lexington, Pope has won 64 percent of his games but holds a middling 20-16 conference record. The Wildcats did reach the Sweet 16 last season, but the expectations don’t stop there. 

“I think a lot of schools would like that and the support,” Vitale said. “Not only the money, they’ve got great support here. These Big Blue Nation fans are so passionate. They deserve better.”

He’s not wrong. Few programs in college basketball are better resourced than Kentucky. The athletic department and its donor base are fully committed, willing to spend whatever it takes to compete at the highest level. NIL has narrowed the gap between traditional powers and smaller programs, but it hasn’t diminished the importance of basketball at Kentucky. If anything, the financial stakes have only intensified the scrutiny.

You don’t see a program like the Ohio State football fading because of NIL. Expectations remain sky-high, and when results fall short, the reaction is swift. That’s the new reality of college sports. Rosters now cost tens of millions of dollars, and fans know it. When those investments don’t translate to wins, frustration follows.

It’s why the Lakers, Knicks, Yankees and Giants churn through coaches and managers. Just ask Dabo Swinney or Kalen DeBoer how fans respond when there isn’t a return on the investment. 

Urban Meyer isn’t totally wrong

Don’t get me wrong, Urban Meyer has his faults. But I always enjoyed his time as a college football coach. He won big, had charisma and made news. Writers typically like those things. 

Lately, I’ve disagreed with a lot of what he’s said regarding the current state of college athletics. But I didn’t completely disagree with his take at the White House dog and pony show last Friday. And to be clear, that isn’t a political statement. It’s just a fact. The people in that room were not the ones who needed to get together to find a solution for college sports. 

Anyway, I think retired coaches typically spout opinions that should reside in yesteryear. Heck, a lot of times, current coaches do the same thing. They want to win and to make their jobs easier, so I guess we shouldn’t be surprised. Well, Meyer actually made a couple of good points. 

“I actually think it’s a simple fix,” he said.

Oh, really? Please elaborate!

“When I was growing up in the profession,  if you violated a rule, that was a problem,“ Meyer said. ”You lose your job. That was made very clear. Throughout litigation and other issues, the NCAA has become — they don’t have subpoena power, and every time they make a decision, they get litigated.”

OK, I don’t disagree. I, too, get annoyed and irritated about the endless lawsuits when someone doesn’t get their way. 

“Rules without enforcement equals chaos,” Meyer said. “You don’t need new rules. We’ve got plenty of rules. Enforce them. So if we get antitrust, then you now will not get litigated.”

Yep. It’s not as easy as just saying, "Enforce the rules," but I wish the NCAA and the College Sports Commission would hand down actual, legitimate punishments. At some point, a court isn’t going to side with the schools if a rule is etched in stone in the rulebook. 

“Get rid of the collectives,” Meyer said. “That’s not allowed. You’re not supposed to do that. That’s called pay for play.”

Personally, I am fine with collectives. Maybe it’s because I’m 38 years old, but the paying players thing, even if it is pay for play, does not bother me. We’re so far past that point. People used to get paid under the table. Coaches and universities make millions and billions off college football. Who cares if players get paid to play? Not me. 

“NIL in its purest form is America,” Meyer said. “If a business owner wants to hire Jeremiah Smith and pay him a certain amount of money, he’s certainly allowed to do that. That’s called capitalism.”

Right on, Urban! It’s a low bar, but it’s one of the most honest things I’ve heard a former coach say. 

“I think if the collective goes away, college sports gets better immediately…if we have an antitrust exemption,” Meyer said.

It might sound good. And I wouldn’t be opposed because players can get paid through other avenues, but good luck with the antitrust exemption. 

Prediction markets loom over March Madness

March Madness will deliver its usual chaos of buzzer-beaters, Cinderella runs and the road to the Final Four. This year, prediction markets could steal some of the spotlight.

Despite the NCAA’s opposition, traders have flocked to platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. The money is already massive. In February alone, $2.27 billion was traded on men’s college basketball markets on Kalshi, according to Front Office Sports, nearly double the $1.8 billion wagered on the Super Bowl.

NCAA president Charlie Baker hasn’t hidden his frustration. At the NCAA convention, Baker repeatedly criticized prediction markets in conversations with reporters. Tensions recently spilled over into a trademark fight. The NCAA has challenged Kalshi’s use of the term “March Madness,” a trademark it controls, and asked the company to scrub the phrase from its website.

The NCAA may be the loudest critic, but it isn’t alone in watching the space closely. At the same time, some leagues are beginning to embrace it. The NHL and MLS already have official prediction market sponsors, and MLB could soon follow.

Kalshi recently signed endorsement deals with Bryson DeChambeau and Giannis Antetokounmpo as it looks to cement its presence in the sports ecosystem. With billions already flowing into these markets and leagues testing the waters, the NCAA’s resistance could become futile.

More news and links:

• Stunning news out of Ohio State as President Ted Carter resigns, citing an inappropriate relationship. This news will reverberate in athletics because of Carter’s influence.

• Sportico’s Daniel Libit has a fascinating look at Oliver Luck’s current roles in college athletics. The former West Virginia AD currently sits on WVU’s Board of Governors and holds jobs within the Clemson and Rutgers athletic departments.

• A lot has been written recently about college sports and private equity. Matt Baker of The Athletic has a story about the best-case scenarios involving PE.

• The Chicago Tribune has a great story on how Northwestern has become a successful women’s sports hub over the past two decades.

• Former LSU coach Brian Kelly says the Tigers are spending $40 million on their 2026 football roster.

• The Athletic recently talked to several college football front office staff members who illustrate just how important money has become in roster construction.

• Syracuse special advisor Heather Lyke would like to be the Orange’s AD.

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DOWN TO BUSINESS

Why football should break away from traditional conferences

Since the beginning of college sports, the enterprise has revolved around the conference model. OK, except for Notre Dame. Schools joined leagues where every sport competed under the same banner. That structure worked when geography drove decisions and TV money was secondary. College football has outgrown that model.

At some point, it’s worth asking a simple question: why does football have to drag every other sport along with it? If Oregon wants to play Big Ten football and SMU football wants to play in the ACC, that’s fine. But does Oregon men’s soccer really need to play a conference game at Michigan State Spartans? Does SMU’s women’s volleyball team need to fly across the country to play at Boston College?

The financial gravity of football has become so overwhelming that we may be approaching a future where football operates separately from the rest of a school’s athletic programs. Maybe that takes form in a super league for a few dozen elite programs. Maybe it eventually stretches across all of Division I.

The concept is already happening in smaller ways. Beginning this season, North Dakota State, Sacramento State and Northern Illinois will have football-only conference memberships. Even Villanova, William & Mary and Sacred Heart do it in FCS. (Well, maybe Sac State in the MID-AMERICAN Conference is a little goofy.)

Football drives the overwhelming majority of media rights value in college athletics. When networks negotiate billion-dollar conference deals, they’re not paying for field hockey or softball inventory. The golden goose is wall-to-wall football on Saturdays. That’s why revenue maximization is driving so many of the sport’s biggest decisions. 

Schools want their football programs in the most visible, most lucrative environments possible. Aligning football with a high-profile FBS conference allows universities to chase TV money and exposure without forcing every other sport to follow the same path. In a football-only model, Olympic sports could remain in more regional leagues, dramatically reducing travel costs and logistical strain.

The West Coast Pac-12 teams should be playing each other in Olympic sports. Instead, the last wave of realignment stretched conferences across the country. Football drove every decision, and programs were willing to abandon decades of geographic logic for perceived financial stability. The result is conferences like the Big Ten and ACC, which resemble gerrymandered Congressional districts.

For non-revenue sports, it’s one of the dumbest things about college athletics. A volleyball team flying 3,000 miles for a midweek conference game is a direct byproduct of football-driven realignment. Without being overly dramatic, that kind of travel creates unnecessary strain on athletes who are supposed to balance academics with competition.

Do you know what makes sense? North Dakota State’s non-rev sports in the Summit League, Sacramento State’s in the Big West and Northern Illinois’ in the Horizon. 

Universities could pursue the monster TV contracts that sustain their departments without forcing Olympic sports into exhausting routines. ADs love to talk about student-athlete welfare initiatives. It sounds even better when the swimming and diving team only has to travel 112 miles for a meet.

College football continues drifting toward a professionalized ecosystem. And there’s nothing wrong with that. But when one sport generates the overwhelming majority of revenue for an athletic department, it inevitably begins to pull away from the pack.

The current model is already a compromise between two competing realities. Football wants national exposure and massive media deals. Olympic sports need sustainable budgets. Trying to satisfy both goals within the same conference structure is becoming impossible. 

Football-only affiliations could allow universities to pursue the sport’s financial ceiling while protecting the competitive and academic experience of athletes in other sports. Maybe it’s a pie-in-the-sky idea. Yes, the politics of college athletics make it harder than it sounds. But the forces pushing college football in that direction aren’t going away.

Money will always exist. And schools will always chase more of it. Athletic departments will keep searching for ways to balance football’s financial ambitions with the realities facing the rest of their sports. Never say never.

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