The very first, very exciting NIL Wire MAILBAG

Hope everyone had a great weekend.

Welcome to my first NIL Wire mailbag. Enjoy the questions, answers and insights. After this, we’ll take the rest of the week off for the holiday, return next Monday and then come back Jan. 5 with a normal week.

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— Kyle

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It’s Christmas card season! To celebrate the spirit of holiday giving, I implored readers for their questions about NIL, revenue sharing and any other college sports matters. Sadly, I didn’t get any queries about potential Cleveland Browns draft picks or handicapping the spelling bee. Alas. 

Thanks to the folks who responded. It’s always fun to see what’s on people’s minds. This is something I’ll try to do again in the first half of 2026. 

Let’s get to your questions, which have been lightly edited for clarity:

Would love to hear from coaches or athletic directors on what very specific changes to the system or points of emphasis would help most. Most sound bytes have just been, “we need to do something.” But they seem eager to make it known they don’t like the system. The average person has no understanding of the system or what rules would actually help it. – Jeff 

The first-ever NIL Wire mailbag question is not a question. But I understand what Jeff is getting at. The easiest answer is collective bargaining. Everyone in college sports knows it’s the path forward. Unfortunately, most of the stakeholders (ADs, conference commissioners, etc.) don’t want to break that dam — yet. It will be complicated when the day comes; I’m not diminishing the complexity. But it will improve the entire college sports ecosystem, and we’re probably a decade behind schedule. Resistance from the powers that be has harmed the health of the entire enterprise. 

Which creates a good segue to …

If athletes are eventually classified as employees, what would that mean for scholarships, walk-ons and roster sizes? – Chris

Athletes becoming employees wouldn’t instantly professionalize college sports. It would force schools to rethink their compensation structures. What we think of as a traditional athletic scholarship would probably be replaced or supplemented by wages and benefits, perhaps including tuition assistance. 

Walk-ons have already been affected by the House settlement, which capped roster sizes and effectively eliminated walk-ons. If athletes were employees, there would be legal issues to the walk-on system. Paying athletes would almost certainly create smaller rosters for non-revenue sports. 

When will the House settlement money be paid? – Craig 

Backpay is currently on hold in the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals until early 2026 due to appeals. There have been Title IX challenges from female athletes alleging that the payouts are unfair. 

Nearly $3 billion will be distributed over the next 10 years to athletes who competed in college from 2016 through June 2025. Football and men’s basketball players are expected to receive the largest share, which is part of the appeals process. 

On a scale of 1 to 10, with 10 representing total chaos, where is NIL and paying college athletes at this point in today’s landscape? – Ed 

Great question. And the answer will differ dramatically based on who you talk to. Some coaches would tell you it’s at a 15 and rant about an unregulated free-for-all that’s destroyed roster management, tampered with recruiting and turned every offseason into open season. Fair to an extent. But guess what? Every job evolves, and usually that evolution presents difficulties. The media industry has dealt with it for two decades. Coaches are paid millions of dollars for a variety of reasons — partly because it isn’t an easy job. 

I’m on the opposite end of that spectrum. I won’t say it’s a 1. There are some consequences to paying players, unintended or otherwise. But I wouldn’t go any higher than 3. Free-market capitalism is working just fine regarding rosters. I do wish it wasn’t endless free agency, but I’m glad parity is evening things out. Playoff games between Ohio State-Georgia and Michigan-Alabama are awesome. Guess what else is nice? Getting more teams across the country involved. Indiana. Texas Tech. Oregon. It’s good for the sport. 

There are still advantages for the blue bloods. Tradition, resources and NFL draft picks matter. Money has always been important in college sports. Now it’s in the open, though, not in the shadows. I don’t see how that’s a bad thing. I think people are still grappling with it. Twenty years down the road, paying players won’t even register a complaint.

When will we start seeing athletes charged with tax evasion because they have no idea about filing taxes or no accountant to do it for them? Or because they don’t want to give up so much of their money to the government? – Mike 

This is a fascinating question. You heard some form of this about NIL collectives, and earlier this year, FOIAball had the scoop on UCLA steering boosters toward tax-free NIL donations. It’s inevitable, right? You can’t be naive. It’s no different than making sports betting legal and expecting there won’t be complications. Some athletes have undoubtedly had some sticker shock when they’ve realized how much they owe on taxes. Most schools offer financial literacy classes to athletes, and since NIL was instituted, they’ve educated them on how it impacts their taxes. 

With NIL collectives evolving or dissolving at some schools, what does the next phase of NIL look like for athletes who aren’t stars in football or men’s basketball? – Michael

Not good. But it’s not as if the outlook was significantly better when collectives were all the rage. The best players on the best teams in the most visible sports will always be the most compensated. Women’s basketball and women’s volleyball players continue to improve their marketability. And there will always be outliers who are creative and attract massive social media followings, prompting brands to come calling. 

How are mid-majors and Group of 5 programs supposed to stay competitive as NIL spending and revenue sharing continue to escalate? – Liam 

I hear this question a lot. Here’s the thing: Those schools weren’t nationally competitive pre-NIL. Is it really that different? Maybe a little? For instance, pre-transfer portal, James Madison would have been loaded this season. But it’s not as if G5 programs were routinely in the national championship hunt before. 

In football, a lot of G5 programs are surprisingly good at retaining talent. Men’s basketball is the sport that, in my opinion, has been most affected. The mid-major leagues have seen a big dropoff in competitive NCAA tournament games/upsets, and the amount of players transferring up is problematic. 

The G5 schools aren’t doomed, though. They can sell their ability to develop players and the fit. Smaller, less resourced programs need to be strategic about where they spend. That could mean focusing NIL efforts on a smaller pool of players or even leaning into being a minor league of sorts for power conferences. “Come here for a couple years, and we’ll develop you for a bigger program.” 

The G5 schools that produce consistent winners will be the ones that adapt their expectations, invest wisely and don’t try to chase an impossible standard. 

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